| Live Corporate Webinar : |
Wednesday : 21st November, 2012
02:00 PM EST | 11:00 AM PST
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Managerial Decision-Making Under Risk and Uncertainity
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| Presented by - Dr. Richard Bayney, President & Founder, Project & Portfolio Value Creation |
| Duration of webinar : 60 Mins | Duration of Q/A session : 10-15 mins |
| Deliverables : Copy of presentation slides will be shared |
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| Short
Abstract: |
In the face of risk (likelihood of an unfavorable outcome) and uncertainty (range of possible outcomes), how well do you perform at decision-making? Do you strive to make good decisions or to make the right decisions? If the right decision is the descriptive result of the knowledge of an event that has already occurred, a good decision can be defined as logically consistent, defensible, transparent, and prescriptive. In the face of risk and uncertainty, the webinar addresses why you should strive to make good decisions which may lead to favorable or unfavorable outcomes.
While organizations tend to provide rewards for the right decisions, in reality, one can only make good decisions when the path ahead is unclear and the minefields that lie along one or other path are shrouded by the fogginess of uncertainty. Beginning with an overview of the different mental models of decision-making and examining hidden traps that prohibit good decision-making, this webinar provides a structured methodology for making difficult and complex decisions by first decomposing them into phased elements and applying proven analytic techniques that facilitate good, informed decision-making. Decision Tree analysis is employed to decompose complex, sequential decisions while Expected Monetary Value (EMV) is described as the common currency to evaluate decision options and to value information before committing to expensive investments. Because prioritization is utilized so widely in organizations, utility theory is introduced as a means of incorporating both quantitative and qualitative decision criteria in an attempt to bring together the often conflicting objectives of multiple stakeholders on Governance committees.
This presentation will cover the following areas :
- Decision framing and decision modeling.
- Probability and risk analysis.
- Uncertainty forecasting.
- Data integrity, cognitive and emotional biases.
- Decision Tree analysis.
- Risk preference.
- Utility theory and Multiple Objective Decision Analysis (MODA).
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| Who Should Attend : |
| Managers and department heads at all levels who are engaged in long-term strategic or short-term operational decision-making when there are multiple options from which to choose, each of which could lead to a range of uncertain outcomes. |
| Speaker Profile: |
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Dr. Richard Bayney is President & Founder of Project & Portfolio Value Creation (PPVC), a consulting boutique providing Training and Education in Project, Program, Portfolio, Resource, and Risk Management as well as Business, Strategic, Portfolio, and Scenario Planning services. He is a Faculty member at the University of Pennsylvania lecturing to graduate and executive students in (a) Project Portfolio Management and (b) Decision Modeling. Richard is a frequent speaker in ‘Portfolio & Resource Management, Risk Analysis & Risk Management, and Strategic Planning in Drug Development’ and is an Advisory Board Member to Cambridge Healthtech Institute. more...
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Best Regards.
Marketing.
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